Thought Leadership

Forecasting for licensed compounds

Peter Mansell examines the impact of heavier in-licensing/out-licensing traffic on pharma forecasting. More focused R&D strategies that prune out dead wood or high-risk therapy areas are leaving pipeline gaps that make management and investors nervous. The patent cliff is swallowing dependable revenue streams that can no longer be replaced with a new generation of big-hitters,…

When forecasters take the floor: 6 tips on presenting a forecast

On June 28, 2011, In Director Articles, Tags
Peter Mansell queries some of pharma’s leading forecasters for their dos and don’ts on presenting a forecast Factors such as increasing complexity of products and patient flows, diffuse geographies, and market uncertainties have complicated substantially the forecasting process for pharmaceuticals. At the end of the line, though, someone will still be looking for ‘a number’—one…

Forecasting Europe: Whats next for forecasting?

On May 3, 2011, In Director Articles, Tags
*In the run up to Forecasting Europe [1] in Berlin in June, eyeforpharma asked some of our key speakers for their ins* [1] http://www.eyeforpharma.com/forecastingeu/ In the run up to Forecasting Europe in Berlin in June, eyeforpharma asked some of our key speakers for their insights on the state of forecasting. Heres what they had to…

New challenges and techniques in pharmaceutical forecasting

Peter Mansell explores how pharmaceutical forecasters are developing new methods and new metrics to enable them to make better guesses Forecasting for pharmaceuticals is never going to be the most exact of sciences. “Informed, intelligent guesswork” is one practitioner's definition of long-term forecasts. So, uncertainty is the forecaster's natural habitat: addressing markets in flux, prone…

When to use patient flow analysis and how to get it right

Andrew Tolve With the evolution of forecasting models, analysts have more tools at their disposal to accurately forecast drugs and diagnostics. Patient flow analysis is one of the most powerful of these tools. It enables analysts to model the unique flow of patients through a specific disease area and capture the nuances of that market's…